Monday, May 28, 2018

Two Rules for Making Better Decisions

May 28, 2018

There are many ways to improve your decision making, but two simple rules can be particularly helpful.

First, be less certain — about every part of your decision-making process. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well. Revisit the logic of your decisions. What else would you think about if you were less sure that A causes B, or that B is preferable to C?

Second, always ask yourself, “How often does that typically happen?” For example, if you were considering funding a startup, you might ask: What percentage of startups fail? (Or, what percentage succeed?) Accepting that you know less than you think you do is one of the best ways to start making better decisions.

Adapted from “3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making,” by Walter Frick